Brazil’s Credit Rating and the US inflation problem

In 1989 Moody’s downgraded Brazil to BB- without a reasonable justification, causing enormous suffering and strife to the Brazilian population and government.

Moody’s and S&P, and most Americans, have yet to understand the concept of Real Interest rates, rather than Nominal Interest rates, which is an incomplete pricing scheme. It misleads investors into believing that they are receiving significantly more "interest" than they really are. In Brazil that would be a against the law.

During 1989 to 2009, Brazil always had the ability to pay the Real Interest rate of its debts, plus an extra for amortization. It never justified the rating of "questionable ability to pay".

Now a Brazilian Rating Agency has used the justification against the US Treasuries. Since they are not indexed to inflation "there is a questionable doubt that investor’s will receive the true value of their investment, because of future US inflation".

For 30 year treasuries, where a 4% inflation will erode principal by 50% at least, a double CC would have been more justified. But that would have seemed adding insult onto injury.

But it is about time Americans realize that Nominal Interest Rates is a form of wrong information, incorrect pricing model, because part of that interest is inflation, not interest. And inflation is not income by any means.

That is one the reason’s of the sub-prime crisis. Forcing poor people to pay "inflated interest rates" in the beginning of their life cycle, and paying totally eroded principal 30 years down the line.

Meanwhile inflation in Brazil is under control and the country today has the highest real interest rate in the world which makes it a very interesting investment in bonds in fixed income.